OzSoccer

[OzCap]

I do the synthetic MLs, but I have other picks that can vary from fairly heavy favourite to fairly heavy dogs (you need to have a strong constitution to play some of them!)

Jan-13
Welsh Prem
1u on Bala Town (-1) @ $1.63

Bala are up against Bangor City who they beat 3-0 at Bangor barely 10 days ago - so this removes a lot of lineup/form improvement variables etc... Add to this that Bangor is awful on the road, losing >65% of their games and struggling to score. Last weekend Bangor had a good win against Port Talbot, but that was at home. There could be a little revenge factor that has Bangor playing a little harder and maybe, a slight improvement in form, but I still see Bala winning this one and I think a 2+goal win is most likely (2-0/3-1), so playing the (-1) AH.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

1/13 Play:

Eng. Conf. South: 0.25u on Staines (ML) @ $8.99 (this is one of those strong constitution picks )

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Overnight play (Asian cup):

Oman threw 5 across the back last time out and while S Korea had a boatload of possession, finding a way through that mess (with four more possession midfielders) was very difficult for them. I expect Oman to play deep again and most likely play a very defensive formation (wouldn't be surprised to see them put 5 there again). Australia is without their captain and although Cahill will step up to the role and fill the shoes well, I expect the Aussie goals to be throttled with the formation that Oman puts out there. Oman was solid on the counter-attack and almost snatched an equalizer late against S Korea and the Aussies are a little susceptible to that play.

Verdict...Australia should win, but it may not be the resounding victory we would like to see. Going with the (-1) AH in this instance, worst case scenario should be a push.

1u on Australia (-1) @ $1.53

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Oman did put 5 across the back and took about 30 minutes for us to find a way through, but eventually it came, I guess I needed to have more faith in my Soccerroos! After a very early scare they put together a very solid performance and look like a team that could go all the way in the Cup. Will be looking to back them more for sure.

1-0 and +0.53 units.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Staines come through 2-1 and the big dog gives big reward...0.25u returns 2u!

Now we can relax on the beach...

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Don't have time for a lengthy write up...but in New Zealand...

0.5 units on Auckland @ $1.18

Wanted to create a synthetic line, but didn't have time to run permutations.

Good luck!
oz

 

[OzCap]

Auckland pull it off. Wanderers appear to be playing a little tighter soccer at home and so I felt like the number of goals was going to be lower than the total handicaps were showing (although I thought Auckland would put 2 in) and so I just went with the straight win. Wish I had time to run the perms a little better.

Nonetheless I will take the 0.09 units to add a little to the Staines bet earlier.

Bangor is still outstanding (Wed game), so far 3-0 and +2.62 units (2.25 units/116.4% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Bala picks up the win (3-0), on the day 1-0 and +0.63 units.

Overall: 4-0 and +3.25 units (3.25 units/100.0% ROI)

That puts my soccer picks (including the synthetic ML) at 10 games without a loss (9-0-1). Enjoying this run while I can. I guarantee I will come undone either before or during the weekend lol

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another play from the Asian Cup overnight. I have to admit that UAE and Iran both look favourable, but I think Bahrain will keep it close with UAE and those 'odd' goals can change close games too rapidly (and upend otherwise well thought out bets). Tonight I am going to look more closely at the Iran-Qatar game.

Let's start off by pointing out the obvious, Iran is a quality side and is arguably one of the favourites to go deep into this tournament, Qatar on the other hand is an up and coming Gulf team, but simply lacks the depth and discipline to do much in this tournament. In the opening match Iran stayed very patient as Bahrain chased everything and anything and made it difficult for Iran to get much space that they could exploit in order to create goals. Eventually Iran got the first goal and at that point you could visibly see the Bahrainian team deflate and Iran controlled the game after that point, walking away 2-0 winners in the end.

Qatar on the other hand had a very different start to their cup tournament. After getting the lead goal against the UAE, it quickly become clear that while they are an improving team, it is seeming that the improvement is very much in the attack/midfield part of the field. The defense was frequently pulled out of position by the UAE forwards and this left a VERY weak goalkeeper exposed and ultimately allowed a lot of goals to be scored. It is likely the Qatari keeper will be replaced in this game, but I don't think that will help much. They have had a rough year and I don't see it getting any better in this tournament.

Overall, I expect Iran to win this game handily and quite likely by a clean sheet and/or a number of goals. The bets I would consider:

Iran to win @ $1.64
Iran AH(-0.75) @ $1.83
Iran only team to score @ $2.23
Match over 2 goals @ $1.89

Officially I am going with:

1 unit on Iran AH(-0.75) @ $1.83
0.5 units Match over 2 goals @ $1.89

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Iran got the win 1-0, but the number of goals in the game was surprisingly low given the number of goal attempts. Pretty much would have been in positive money with any of the suggested bets except the total, which unfortunately was my secondary bet...1-1 and small loss of 0.08 units (on a net of 1 unit gambled since 0.5 units of the side pushed).

Overall: 5-1 and +3.07 units (4.25 units/72.2% ROI)

Cheers
Oz

 

[OzCap]

1/15:

Greek Super League:
1 unit on Platanias Chanion/Atromitos Athinon DRAW @ $3.09

Good luck
Oz

 

[richporter]

Gluck dude keep it up

 

[OzCap]

Another situational play that I like, Real v Atletico.

Real, has been struggling of late with 3 consecutive losses (including one in the Cup to Atletico barely a week ago), but they at least had an opportunity to right the ship against Espanyol over the weekend with a strong 3-0 victory. Real is still the team in Spain and given the 2-0 deficit on aggregate against Atletico I would expect them to move forward and come after this game, they really don't have any option as they need to score two goals. They have a little revenge factor here, are at home where they play a little better (and you can expect a little friendlier refereeing ) and they will want to please their crowd, but it is worth mentioning that Atletico has had their number in this competition (probably they want it more because they aren't as likely to win the league).

I expect Real to field a solid first team in this encounter and wouldn't be surprised to see them come out very strong and just go at Atletico in hopes of scoring an early goal that will allow them to play a more balanced game and seek a second goal in a more controlled manner. Both teams are deep enough that extra-time/penalties is no significant advantage for either, but it wouldn't be surprising to see this go there provided Atletico doesn't score (as away goals rule would strongly favour them).

No thorough tactical analysis here, but simply put it is all about scoring. If Atletico score, Real is going to turn into an offensive machine and there will be a lot of goals scored combined as they will open up and provide opportunities for both sides to score (more). Real will have to play attacking minded football and score at least two if they want to stay in this tournament. On the whole I would expect at least two goals to be scored because of the aggregate score factors mentioned before. If you look at a simple goals analysis of these two teams, they are both averaging 3.3 goals per game over the last 6 games (mostly scored by Real/Atletico) and their previous encounters at Real have all been 2+ goals affairs.

Bets with value in my opinion:

Real to win @ $1.55
Match goals AH (2.25) Over @ $1.52
Real to score $1.12
Real first to score @ $1.46
Both teams to score @ $1.85

Officially I am going with:

1 unit on Match goals AH(2.25) Over @ $1.52

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

The ol' no score "bore" draw between Atromitos/Platanias, but even if they didn't win, we did 1-0 and +2.09 units.

Overall: 6-1 and +5.16 units (5.25 units/98.3% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

1 unit on Match goals AH(2.25) Over @ $1.52 - Winner as Real and Atletico end up duking it out, the early goal from Atletico set the tone for that match.

1-0 and +0.52 units.

Overall: 7-1 and +5.68 units (6.25 units/90.9% ROI)

Time for a break before looking at the Asian Cup games.

Oz

 

[Vegaobscura]

Great rollThankyou)(&

 

[OzCap]

Looking to the Asian Cup again tonight as the Group D winner will most likely be crowned with this round of games. Japan/Iraq winner will likely take Group D honours, Jordan/Palestine (what a politically interesting match that is...pretty much Palestine A vs Palestine B in terms of players).

Jordan/Palestine. On paper Jordan should walk this, but under Ray Wilkins they have really really struggled and there is not indication that it is turning around. Palestine on the other hand qualified through a secondary cup win against the Phillipines and arguably have a little more form, although being dismantled by a strong Japanese team will have put a little dent in that. I am going to avoid this game as it is not clear which way this will go. Jordan might finally get it together in the final third and score a bunch, or Jordan may keep it very close and the game end in a low-scoring draw.

Japan/Iraq This is the more interesting match up for me (from a sport and wagering perspective). Iraq is still riding the fairy tale win of 2007 and truly hasn't improved massively since then. Japan on the other hand has a team full of players playing in major leagues around the world and under the guidance of Aguirre has turned into a pretty decent international team (ranked 54th and one of the top 3 rankings in the tournament). Japan dismantled Palestine in the first round and with the goal difference is practically assured of the progressing into the next round and will be hungry to bean Iraq as this would basically assure them of winning the group and progression and ultimately will allow them to rest some key players during game 3 of the group stage (obviously beneficial to the QF games). Iraq has not been scoring a lot of goals and while the Japanese back four has some weakness and potential to concede, they will likely field the same 4-3-3 as in the opening round, using their talented left back Nagatamo to push up quickly and test the center of the Iraqi defense with his gifted crosses. If Yoshida/Morishige don't get beaten 1-on-1 and the midfield can minimise Kasim's long passes and hold the outside there is a good chance of a clean sheet.

Iraq's team is extremely young and unfortunately this brings a lot of inexperience that will play into Japan's hands too. With the recent embarassment at the Gulf Cup where they could barely get on the scoresheet I would submit there is not much to make me believe in any outcome except a Japan win.

Bets with value:

Japan to win @ $1.34
Japan AH(-1) @ $1.53
Japan clean sheet @ $1.61
Japan only team to score @ $1.82

Officially I am going with:

1 unit on Japan AH(-1) @ $1.53
0.5 unit on Japan only team to score @ $1.82

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well, Group D is shaping up to be an interesting competition after Jordan finally found their form and Japan squeaked by Iraq. Could have had some good odds on Jordan to win the group prior to the game (I think it was $50) could have arbitraged that nicely right now, but I didn't think about that option...

Japan won 1-0 so we pushed on the AH, but they were the only team to score so the secondary bet came through (overall a better ROI )

1-0-1 and +0.41 units.

Overall: 8-1 and +6.09 units (6.75 units/90.2% ROI)

Time for some sleep here.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

No time to write up or seek better odds. .. Dutch Eredivisie.. Ajax to win, 1unit @ $1.34.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Ajax come through 2-0, so 1-0 and +0.34 units.

Overall: 9-1 and +6.43 units (7.75 units/83.0% ROI)

Oz